The Emerging Arctic Shipping Corridors

The dramatic sea ice loss makes trans-Arctic navigation possible. However, navigability assessments at high temporal resolution are still very limited. To bridge this gap, daily concentration and thickness from CMIP6 projections applied to evaluate the future potential of Arctic shipping under multiple climate scenarios. September navigable area will continue increase through 2050s for open-water (OW) ships 2040s Polar Class 6 (PC6) vessels across all Quasi-equilibrium states then ensue both OW PC6 SSP245 SSP585. sailing time be shortened, especially ships, while days types dramatically. able sail routes year-round starting in 2070s when decadal-averaged global mean surface temperature anomaly hits approximately +3.6°C (under SSP585) compared pre-industrial times (1850–1900).